Home Affordability Still Tops Nationwide

Home affordability slipped slightly last quarter, dragged down by rising mortgage rates and recovering home prices in North Carolina and nationwide.

The National Association of Home Builders reports a Q2 2011 Home Opportunity Index reading of 72.6. This means that nearly 3 of 4 homes sold last quarter were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.

Q2 2011 marks the 10th straight quarter -- dating back to 2009 -- in which the index surpassed 70.

Prior to 2009, the index had never crossed 70 even one time.

However, we must remember that the Home Affordability Index is a national survey. From region-to-region, and town-to-town, home affordability varied.

In the Midwest, for example, affordability was highest. 14 of the 15 most affordable markets nationwide were spread throughout Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana. Only Syracuse (#9) cracked the list from other regions. 

The top 5 most affordable cities in Q2 2011 were:

1. Kokomo, IN (95.8%)
2. Wheeling, WV (94.7%)
3. Lansing, MI; East Lansing, MI (94.4%)
4. Bay City, MI (94.3%)
5. Youngstown, OH; Warren, OH; Boardman, OH (93.7%)

By contrast, the Northeast Region and Southern California ranked as the least affordable markets. Led by the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area, 7 of the 10 least affordable areas were in New York, New Jersey, and California. For the 13th consecutive quarter the New York metro area was ranked "Least Affordable".

Just 25.2 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income there.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.

Homebuilders Expect A Soft Winter Housing Market

Two months after posting their worst confidence reading of 2011, home builders say they foresee no improvement in the immediate- or medium-term market for new homes nationwide.

In August, for the second straight month, the Housing Market Index read 15.

The HMI is a monthly housing survey, published by the National Association of Homebuilders. It's scored on a scale of 1-100 with readings over 50 suggesting favorable home builder conditions. Readings under 50 suggest unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has been below the 50-point benchmark since 2006.

To calculate the HMI, home builders are asked 3 separate questions, each addressing the different element of the new home sales business.

1. How are today's market conditions for the sale of new homes?
2. How do you expect market conditions to be 6 months from now?
3. How are the current foot traffic of prospective buyers?

Based on the August answers to these questions, builders are witnessing an improvement with the current market, partially fueled by low mortgage rates, but expect momentum to fade into early-2012.

As a home buyer in Raleigh , this may bode well for you. If you can wait to buy a home, you may find builders more willing to concede on price or upgrades.

The other side of that conversation, though, is that while you may save money on the home, you may lose it in your monthly payments. Rising mortgage rates can quickly zap your savings -- adding tens of thousands in interest costs to your budget long-term.

For now, home prices remain low and mortgage rates do, too. Home affordability is at an all-time high. Take advantage of what the market gives you.

Led By Expectations Of A Strong Fall Season, Homebuilder Confidence Bounces Back

Homebuilder confidence is bouncing back.

One month after an unceremonious dip highlighted by poor sales figures and dim prospects for the future, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index rebounded two points to 15 in July.

The monthly Housing Market Index is scored on a 1-100 scale. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders and the "new home" market. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read higher than 50 in more than 5 years.

As a housing metric, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, self-reported by builders. The surveys ask about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume; and current buyer foot traffic levels.

In July, the responses read as follows : 

• Current single-family sales : 15 (+2 from June)
• Projected single-family sales : 22 (+7 from June)
• Buyer foot traffic : 12 (Unchanged from June)

The most noteworthy reading is the rapid rise in Projected single-family home sales. Although builders aren't experiencing more foot traffic, they think sales will spike between now and the New Year. 

That could spell bad news for Apex home buyers.

When builders harbor higher expectations for the future, they're less willing to make concessions for upgrades and/or price. Your likelihood of getting "a great deal" as a buyer diminishes.

That's why it's good that mortgage rates are still so low. Low mortgage rates help with home affordability and can offset slight jumps in sale price.

Mortgage rates remain just above their lowest levels of 2011, and of all-time. 

Homebuilder Confidence Slips To 9-Month Low

Despite rising new home sales and an increase in building permits nationwide, home builder confidence slipped to a 9-month low in June. The monthly Housing Market Index from the National Association of Homebuilders registered 13 this month -- three ticks lower than last month, and its lowest level since September 2010.

June's 3-point drop from May is the biggest one-month move since May 2010, the month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit. The retreat could signal favorable pricing for new home buyers in Raleigh in the months ahead.

When builders get less bullish on housing, they may be more willing to negotiate for upgrades and discounts. Ultimately, this can help new home buyers buy homes at better, lower prices.

A closer look at the Housing Market Index shows why this may be true.

The Housing Market Index is not a single-reading statistic. It's a composite; the result of 3 separate surveys, each meant to measure a specific facet of a home builder's business. The survey questions are:

 

How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?

How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?

How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

When builders reply, their responses are tallied and mapped to a scale of 1-100. Readings over 50 are considered favorable. Readings under 50 are considered unfavorable. The HMI has not been higher than 50 in more than 5 years.

In June, the HMI composite reading of 13 was anchored by falling foot traffic and reduced expectations for "future sales". Homebuilders expect new home sales to be down through the New Year.

Therefore, if you're a home buyer in North Carolina and have considered "buying new", the time may be right for making an offer. Financing is cheap, home values are low, and builders are pessimistic -- a terrific combination for today's home buyer.

Home Affordability Still Soaring; New Records Reached

Home affordability moved higher last quarter, buoyed by stable mortgage rates and falling home prices in North Carolina and nationwide. The National Association of Home Builders reports that Q1 2011 Home Opportunity Index reached an all-time high for the second straight quarter last quarter.

Nearly 3 of 4 homes sold between January-March 2011 were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,400. It's the 9th straight quarter in which home affordability surpassed 70 percent, and the highest reading in more than 20 years of record-keeping.

From metropolitan area-to-metropolitan area, though, affordability varied.

In the Midwest, for example, affordability was high. 7 of the 10 most affordable markets were in the Midwest, including Kokomo, Indiana, in which 98.6% of homes were affordable to median income-earning families. Indianapolis, Indiana placed second for "big city" affordability.

The most affordable "big city" last quarter was Syracuse, New York. With a 94.5% affordability rate, Syracuse ranks 8th nationally in the Home Opportunity Index. It's the second time that Syracuse placed first in the last 4 quarters.

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of home affordability, the "Least Affordable Major City" title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 12th consecutive quarter. Just 24.1 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income, down more than 1 percent from the last reading.

Regardless of where you live, remember that rising mortgage rates can levy more pain on your household budget than can rising home values. And mortgage rates are expected to rise long before home prices do.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.

As Buyer Traffic Grows, Homebuilder Confidence Slips

Homebuilder confidence is falling -- a good sign for buyers of newly-built homes.

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the Housing Market Index slipped one point to 16 in April. It's the 5th time in 6 months that the index read 16 -- a figure exactly in line with the 1-year average, but still considered "poor". The Housing Market Index reports on a scale of 1-100.

Values of 50 or better representing "favorable conditions". Values below 50 are considered "unfavorable".

It's been 5 years since the Housing Market Index read north of 50.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, the results of which can be as telling as the final, compiled results. The surveys focus on specific aspects about a homebuilder's business, and use the broader responses to gauge overall market "sentiment".

The 3 questions are: 

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

In April, interestingly, home builders felt market conditions were worse across the board, but still cited higher buyer foot traffic. This may be the result of a combination of rising mortgage rates and falling home values. Both tend to be bad for builders, and both tend to spur home buyers into action.

As a home buyer this spring, therefore, use the HMI data to your advantage. When home builders feel less confident on housing, buyers can often exact better concessions and/or upgrades during the negotiation process.

And, so long as mortgage rates continue to rise, that pressure on builders should build.

Homebuilders Expect More Sales Volume This Year

Homebuilders are optimistic about the housing market this spring, relative to recent months.

According to the monthly Housing Market Index as published by the National Association of Homebuilders, after 4 straight months of reading 16, March homebuilder confidence ticked 1 point higher to 17.

It's the highest confidence reading in 10 months.

A value of 50 or better indicates "favorable conditions" for home builders; with more builders viewing sales conditions as "good" than "poor".

HMI hasn't read higher than 50 since April 2006.

Regionally, the Housing Market Index showed mixed results. Confidence fell 1 point in the Northeast, held firm in the Midwest, and rose in the Southeast and West regions by 2 points and 4 points, respectively.

As an index, the monthly survey is actually a composite of three separate homebuilder surveys -- a report on single-family sales; a report on current buyer foot traffic; and a projection for single family sales in the next 6 months.

March's HMI breakdown shows that builders expect sales to be brisk over the next few months. Projected Single-Family Sales is running at its highest level since May 2010 -- right as the $8,000 federal homebuyer tax credit was ending.

• Single-Family Sales : 17 (Unchanged from February)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 12 (Unchanged from January)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 27 (+2 from February)

For home buyers in Apex and across the country , the March Housing Market Index may signal the end of "builder discounts" and free upgrades. As home sales increase, builders are often less likely to make concessions.

In conjuction with rising mortgage rates and new, mandatory loan costs, buying a newly-built home may never be as inexpensive as it is right now.

If you expect to buy a newly-built home this year, consider moving up your time frame. The longer you wait, the more it may cost you.

Home Affordability Peaked Last Quarter; Purchasing Power Sinks 10%

Home affordability reached an all-time high in 2010's last quarter. Unfortunately for home buyers in North Carolina , it's been a different story since, however.

As mortgage rates cratered, and with home values soft, the Home Opportunity Index reached its highest level in 20 years. The index is published by the National Association of Home Builders. 

Close to 74 percent of the new and existing homes sold between October-December 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. It's the 8th straight quarter in which the Home Affordability Index surpassed 70 percent.

Prior to 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent.

That said, though, as with everything in real estate, home affordability is a local event. For example, take the Elkhart/Goshen area of northern Indiana. 97 percent of homes sold there last quarter were affordable to families making the area's median income. 

This level of affordability is likely related to state capital Indianapolis, a perennial top-scorer itself.

For the second straight quarter -- and the 22nd time dating back to 2006 -- Indianapolis led all major metropolitan areas with a 93.5 affordability rating.

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the home affordability spectrum, the "Least Affordable Major City" title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 11th consecutive quarter. Just 25.5 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income.

It's a a 6-point improvement from Q2 2010, however.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, it's important to remember that rising mortgage rates this year have made homes less affordable in all markets across the United States. We won't see a repeat record in this quarter's HOI once it's calculated and published.

Home buyers in Cary have lost 10% of their purchasing power since November, and mortgage rates look poised to rise even more.

If your plans call for buying a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame. The long-term costs of homeownership are rising, and affordability, therefore, is falling.

Home Builders Slowed By Economy, But Seeing More Foot Traffic

Homebuilder confidence held firm for the second straight month this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The monthly Housing Market Index registered 16 out of a possible 100. January's reading is three points higher than the 2010 low-point, set in September, and in-line with last year's average reading.

According to the NAHB, the market for newly-built, single family homes remains relatively weak "following a below-expectations finish in 2010". Builders expect a better 2011.

The Housing Market Index dates to 1985. It's a composite of surveys which gauge the builders' perceptions of the new home-buying market.

There are 3 surveys and they ask:

1. How would you rate market conditions for sales of new homes today?
2. How would you rate market conditions for sales of new homes 6 months from now?
3. How would you rate the foot traffic of prospective buyers of new homes?

The answers are then collated and weighted, and used to produce the Housing Market Index.

In January, market conditions for current and future sales were deemed to be flat. Foot traffic is seen as increasing. For homebuyers of new homes in Cary , this data may foretell of more bidding wars in the months ahead.

More active buyers means more competition for homes. It may also mean fewer concessions from builders as confidence starts rising.

If you're in the market for a newly-built home, watching the Housing Market Index may be sensible. Each builder is different, of course, but as the overall market sentiment falls, buyers can be more likely to get "a deal". That's not the case once confidence is rising.

The HMI is plateaued. If it resumes rising later this year, expect new homes to get more costly.