New Home Sales Figures Better Than Reported

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.

August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a "blow" to the housing market.

That's an unfair assessment.

It's tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that's exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.

In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply. 

In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months.

It's the second-fastest reading in 2 years.

The new home market represents an interesting opportunity for home buyers in Apex. Builders are facing new competition from bank-owned homes and foreclosures, dragging builder confidence to all-time lows. Furthermore, builders have low expectations for the next 6 months.

As a buyer, you can use this to your advantage. Builders may be more willing to negotiate on price and finishes versus this time last year. You may find a good "deal" in new construction once you go in search of it. 

New Home Supplies Remain Flat; Builders Not Over-Extending

Sales of newly-built homes slipped in July, falling 1 percent as compared to June. Home buyers closed on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 298,000 units, the lowest reading since February.

The supply of new homes, however, remained flat.

July's 6.6 months of supply equaled June's tally and remains near the multi-year low of 6.5 months set in May of this year. The figures suggest a new home market that's finding its balance.

Builders are building to meet demand, and not much more.

The New Home Sales report may have read differently if not for the Northeast Region which doubled its sales units in July. The gains buoyed the broader data, re-affirming the importance of looking past national data and focusing on what's local; the national market is not reflective of any given town

Broken down by region, July New Home Sales fared as follows:

• Northeast Region : +100.0% from June 2011 
• Midwest Region : +2.4% from June 2011 
• South Region : -7.4% from June 2011 
• West Region : -5.9% from June 2011 

However, as with most months, it's important that we recognize the New Home Sales data's margin of error.

Although New Home Sales showed a 1 percent drop in July, the reported margin of error was ±12.9%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as +11.9 percent, or as low as -13.9 percent. Because the range includes both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its July data "zero confidence".

New Home Sales appear to be stable, despite falling sales figures. Supplies remain flat and builder confidence does, too. The good news for buyers in Raleigh , then, is that lower mortgage rates are making homes more affordable.

Mortgage rates are currently at 50-year lows.

New Home Supplies Keep Shrinking; Prices Pressured Higher

Home builders are slowly reducing inventory.

According to Census Bureau data, the number of new homes slid 1 percent from May. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 312,000 newly-built homes last month.

It's the third straight month of falling sales and the headline data casts the Cary housing market in a negative light.

Upon closer inspection, however, the numbers appear quite strong. 

First, sales are down marginally. Total units sold have dropped just 2 percent from the highs of the year. And, second, the number of newly-built homes for sale is down markedly from last year

There are 22% fewer new homes for sale today as compared to June 2010

At today's sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold in 6.3 months -- the quickest sell-out window since the expiration of the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit.

Builders are feeling better about their business, too.

After falling to a 9-month low, homebuilder confidence rebounded this month, boosted by expectations for a strong fall season. For buyers across Georgia , this could be seen as a market-shifting signal.

When builder confidence rises, negotiating for upgrades and price reductions can be tougher; "good deals" get scarce.

If you're a home buyer and are considering new construction, don't let the headlines fool you. Sales figures are slipping, but that's because there are fewer homes are for sale nationwide. The inventory is shrinking and that can push home prices higher.

With mortgage rates still low, today's market may be your best value of the year.

New Home Supplies Drop, And So Does Homebuilder Confidence

On paper, the market for newly-built, single-family homes looks healthy.

Last month, the number of new homes sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis tallied 319,000. The May reading is the second-highest of the year, and 6 percent above the current 12-month average.

These are strong numbers in isolation. However, after accounting for the dwindling supply of new homes for sale as well, the figures look even stronger.

In May, at the current pace of sales, the complete, national inventory of new homes for sale would have been sold in just 6.2 months. 

That's the quickest pace in a year and a 3-month improvement from a year ago.

To hear it from homebuilders, though, you'd think that sales were crashing.

Homebuilder confidence slipped to a 9-month low this month; builders report slowing foot traffic; and the prospects for the next 6 months appear weak. This is not the portrait painted by HUD's May New Home Sales report.

As a home buyer in Cary , this dichotomy may work to your advantage.

Falling supplies and rising demand correlate to higher home prices. Yet, builders are pessimistic for their market. Therefore, despite the economics, psychology may help buyers experience more favorable negotiations, including complimentary upgrades and other builder concessions.

If you're a buyer in today's market, it's a reason to consider the new home market. There may be good value once you know where to look.

New Home Sales Increase For The Second Straight Month

Sales of newly-built homes surprised Wall Street, jumping 7 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 323,000 units last month.

In addition, the supply of new homes dropped to 6.5 months — a 2-month decrease from October 2010 and the best reading in a year.

The report runs counter to recent reports from the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of REALTORS® which suggest a looming housing slowdown. April's New Home Sales report runs counter to that theory; it shows ongoing, steady, staggered improvement in terms of sales volume and sales inventory.

Broken-down by sales prices, the New Home Sales report also showed that homes are selling across all price tiers. The "luxury market" improved most:

• Up to $199,999 : +1,000 homes from March
• $200,000 to $399,999 : +2,000 homes from March
• $400,000 and over : +3,000 homes from March

These figures suggest that that move-up buyers -- not first-timers -- are driving the new home market. Homes under $200,000 now account for just 40% new home sales, down from 46% a year ago.

However, as with most months, it's important that we recognize the New Home Sales data's margin of error. Although New Home Sales showed a 7% improvement in April, the reported margin of error was ±17%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as 24 percent, or as low as -10 percent. 

It's a huge range, and because it encompasses both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its April reading "zero confidence". It's right there in the footnotes.

For home buyers in Apex , rising sales and falling supply may mean higher home prices. And, combined with the issuance of fewer building permits, supplies may be constrained into the summer months. This, too, would pressure home prices higher.

New Home Supply Falls To 16-Year Low

After posting an all-time low in February, New Home Sales rebounded strongly last month.

Based on joint research from the Census Bureau and HUD, 300,000 new, single-family homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in March. It's an 11 percent improvement from February, and right in-line with the 6-month average.

The supply of available new homes improved, too, in March, falling by close to a full month.

At the current pace of sales, the entire new home housing stock would be sold in 7.3 months. This is the second-best reading in a year, a statistic partially-supported by the relatively small number of new homes on the market.

There are now just 183,000 new homes available for sale across Apex and the country. That's the smallest reading since the Census Bureau started to keep New Home Sales records beginning in 1995.

However, it should be noted that the March New Home Sales data is suspect. The reading's margin of error exceeds it actual measurement by almost double. It's possible that sales volume fell in March instead of rising, therefore. The Census Bureau says as much in its footnotes:

The change [in new home sales] is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease [in March 2011].

We won't know for certain until future data revisions are made.

If you're a home buyer in Bella Casa , though, and want to stay ahead of the market, you won't want to take chances. If the Census Bureau finds its data to be accurate after revisions are made, new home prices will already have started to rise.

You may get your best home value by buying sooner rather than later.

Pending Home Sales Rebound; Suggest Brighter Spring For Housing

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A "pending home sale" is defined as a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

February's Pending Home Sales Index rebound breaks a 2-month losing streak, and reverses the recent downward momentum in housing. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales volume showed a sizable loss last month. 

For buyers and sellers of real estate in Cary , the Pending Home Sales Index is of particular import. It's one of the few forward-looking indicators in housing, and February's data suggests a stronger spring season than was the winter.

Region-by-region, Pending Home Sales data varied:

• Northeast Region: -10.9%
• Midwest Region : +4.0%
• South Region : +2.7%
• West Region : +7.0%

3 of 4 regions showed marked improvement, which is good for housing. In the fourth -- New England -- it's likely that inclement weather hampered results.

February was colder-than-normal and the month capped a record-breaking snowfall season for the region. Anecdotally, fewer homes are sold in the cold-and-snow of winter and it's likely that the weather affected local housing markets.

Looking to March and April, therefore, we should expect Existing Home Sales data to rebound. This is because 80% of "pending" homes close within 60 days, and because improving weather should release pent-up demand for housing.

More sales plus higher home demand tends to lead home prices higher. If you're in the market for a new home, consider that your best negotiation leverage comes in a weak market. As the seasons turn, your leverage looks poised to slip.

The best time to buy this year may be right now.

New Home Sales Fall To All-Time, Recorded Low. Maybe.

Sales of newly-built homes plunged 17 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 250,000 units in February, and the supply of new homes rose to 8.9 months in February -- a 1.5 month jump from January.

It's the lowest New Home Sales reading in recorded history, according to the Census Bureau, and the third straight report to signal that home values may be slow to rise in Raleigh and nationwide this season.

Earlier this week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Existing Home Sales down 10 percent from February, and the Federal Home Finance Agency said home values slipped 0.3 percent between December and January.

The media has picked up on the trend, too. 

• No Spring In Housing's Step (WSJ)
• Is Housing Really In Recovery (CNBC)
• Experts See Weak Recovery (UPI)

There's two interesting angles here. First, the one that's largely neglected in the stories online.

Although New Home Sales read -17% last month, the data's Margin of Error read ±19%. This means that, once additional homes are added to February's New Home Sales tally, it's possible that the reading actually rose 2%.

Because the Margin of Error exceeds the measured reading, February's New Home Sales figures are of "zero confidence". The Census Bureau even says as much in its report.

Or, if the initial reading is accurate, a second story emerges. Namely, how an increase in home supply may help this season's buyers to negotiate better prices for a home, and upgrades from a builder.

There's often more to a real estate story than its headline and February's New Home Sales proves it.

Pending Home Sales At The Highest Levels Since April 2010

Another day, another strong report for housing.

The Pending Home Sales Index climbed 2 percent in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A "pending home sale" is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

Pending Home Sales are up for the fifth time in 6 months. The December reading is now its highest since the federal home buyer tax credit's April 2010 contract deadline, and the figure is well north of the Pending Home Sales Index 3-year average.

Coupling this data with December's strong Existing Homes Sales report (+12%) and its strong New Home Sales report (+17%), it's clear that the housing market has past its trough and is in Recovery Mode.

Even consumer confidence is at an 8-month high.

On a regional basis, December's Pending Home Sales Index varied as compared against November. The South region led the way, and the West region lagged.

• Northeast Region: +1.8%
• Midwest Region : +8.0%
• South Region : +11.5%
• West Region : -13.2%

Home buyers would do well to study last month's Pending Home Sales Index. It offers clues of what to expect during the spring buying season. For example, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Therefore, we can look at the December Pending Home Sales Index and project, with a high level of confidence, that home sales will be higher throughout February and March on a units-basis.

Furthermore, because the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports show that housing stock is falling nationwide, spring buyers in Raleigh will notice find more competition for the available housing stock. As the Supply-and-Demand curve shifts towards sellers, home prices rise.

In other words, there's no rush to buy a home, but as the year progresses, home prices are expected to rise, as are mortgage rates. This one-two combination will impact home affordability negatively. And the higher that mortgage rates go, the worse the damage.

Your home-buying dollar won't go as far in 2011's second half as it will go right now. If you have plans to buy a home in 2011, consider moving up your time-frame.