Case-Shiller Index : 85% Of Tracked Cities Showed Home Price Improvement In July

Standard & Poors released its monthly Case-Shiller Index this week. The Case-Shiller Index measures home price changes from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in 20 select U.S. cities. It also reports a "national" index; a composite of the values in said cities.

The most recent Case-Shiller Index shows a 0.9% rise in home values from June to July 2011. Home values were higher in 17 of the 20 tracked cities. Only Phoenix and Las Vegas fell. Denver was flat.

Also noteworthy is that, of all of the Case-Shiller cities, Detroit posted the strongest 1-year, home price improvement. As compared to July 2010, home values are higher by 1.2 percent in Detroit. This bests even Washington, D.C. -- long-believed to be the nation's healthiest housing market.

That said, we should be careful of the conclusions we draw from July's Case-Shiller Index -- both on a city-wide level, and on a national level. This is because, as with most "home price trackers", the Case-Shiller Index has flaws in its methodology. 

The first Case-Shiller Index flaw is its limited scope. Although it's purported to be a "nationa"l housing index, the data that comprises the monthly Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 U.S. cities. These 20 cities represent just 0.6% of the more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The second Case Shiller Index flaw is that the sample sets include single-family, detached homes only. iCondominiums, multi-unit homes, and new construction are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, "excluded" home types outnumber included ones.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 2 months to gather data and report it. It's nearly October, yet we're still discussing the real estate market as it existing in July. For buyers and sellers in Apex , July in ancient history. 

The Case-Shiller Index is useful for tracking long-term trends in housing, but does little to help individuals with their choices to buy or sell a home. For relevant, recent real estate data, talk to a real estate agent in your market. Real estate agents are often the best source for real-time, real estate data.

Home Values Rose In June 2011

Has housing turned the corner for good?

The June 2011 Case-Shiller Index reading posted strong numbers across the board, with each of the index's 20 tracked markets showing home price improvement from May.

Some markets -- Chicago and Minneapolis -- rose as much as 3.2 percent.

The rise in values is nothing about which to get overly excited, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what multiple data sets have already shown about the summer housing market; that it was stronger than the spring market, and that a recovery is underway, but occurring locally, at different rates.

For example, the June 2011 Case-Shiller Index shows the following :

• Denver, Dallas, Washington D.C., and the "California Cities" bottomed in 2009. Each has shown steady improvement since.
• None of the Case-Shiller cities showed negative growth between May and June 2011.
• 12 of Case-Shiller's tracked cities have improved over 3 consecutive months.

In isolation, these statistics appear promising, but it's important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a backward-looking data set, focusing on just a portion of the national housing economy.

As an illustration, the Case-Shiller Index's "national report" only includes data from 20 cities nationwide. They're not the 20 biggest cities, either. Smaller metropolitan areas such as Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#51) are included.

Larger ones including Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5) and San Jose (#10) are not.

In addition, the Case-Shiller index fails to track sales of condominiums, multi-unit homes and new construction. In some markets, including Chicago, these excluded home type can represent a large share of the overall market.

The Case-Shiller Index is a fine data set for policy makers and economists. It describes the broader housing market and shows long-term trends. For the individual home buyer in Raleigh , however, it's much less useful. More than "broad data", you want focused data that's current and relevant.

The best place for data like that is a local real estate agent.

16 of 20 Case-Shiller Cities Show Improvement In May

Standard & Poors released its May 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The index measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.

May's Case-Shiller Index showed a 1 percent increase from April 2011. Home values rose in 16 of the Case-Shiller Index's 20 tracked markets. Only Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa fell. Phoenix was flat.

Don't look too far into the findings, though. Like the FHFA's Home Price Index, the Case-Shiller Index is rife with flaws.

The first flaw of the Case-Shiller Index is its limited geography. Despite being positioned as a national housing index, Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 cities nationwide. There are more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The Case Shiller Index's second flaw is that it ignores all home types excepts for single-family, detached homes in its findings. Condominiums, multi-family homes, and new construction are not included in the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, these excluded home types outnumber the included ones.

Furthermore, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 60 days to release.

The Case-Schiller Index reports on a housing market from 2 months ago -- hardly helpful for today's buyers and sellers in Cary , trying to make sense of today's real estate market data. 

When you want real-time housing market data, therefore, for Inside Wade or anywhere else, look past the Case-Shiller Index and talk to a real estate professional instead. It's where you'll get your best, most relevant information.

Home Values Climb 0.8 Percent In April

Maybe homes in Raleigh are holding value better than we thought.

Between March and April of this year, home values rose 0.8 percent nationally, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index. It's the index's first month-to-month improvement since May of last year.

Values are down 19 percent since peaking 4 years ago.

Private-sector data affirms the government's report. 

Tuesday, the S&P's Case-Shiller Index also showed home values higher by 0.8 percent in April, on a monthly basis. Led by Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, 13 of the Case-Shiller's 20 tracked markets showed improvement in April. 

In March, just 2 markets did.

As a home seller in or near Twelve Oaks , it's nice to see reports of rising home prices after multiple months of "bad news". However, the data may not be as rosy as it appears to be. National real estate surveys including the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index are flawed for everyday buyers and sellers.

The biggest flaw is "age". Both the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index report on a near 2-month delay.

This week, the calendar turns to July. Yet, we're still discussing housing news from April. The housing market of 60 days ago was very different from the housing market of today. Mortgage rates are different, market drivers are different, and the pool of buyers is likely different, too.

We can't discuss today's housing market with "April" in mind. The data is irrelevant.

Another flaw is that both reports are national in scope. Real estate, by contrast, is local.

When we cite the Home Price Index or the Case-Shiller Index, for example, and say "home values rose 0.8% in April", we're just giving a national average. On the local level, some markets rose by more, some rose by less, and others actually fell.

People buy homes on a specific block of a specific street in a specific neighborhood. Data for homes like that can't be captured in a national survey.

The group that gets the most value from the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller is Wall Street and policy-makers. The indices do a fair job of reporting how housing behaves as a whole, but for individuals concerned with buying and selling homes, the best place to find real-time, accurate data is from a real estate professional.

January 2011 Case-Shiller Index : Weak And Flawed

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index for the month of January this week. The index is a home valuation tool, measuring the monthly and annual changes in home prices in select cities nationwide.

January's Case-Shiller Index gave a poor showing. As compared to December 2010, home values dropped in 19 of the Case-Shiller Index's 20 tracked markets. Only Washington, D.C. gained. The results were only modestly better on an annual basis, too.

18 of 20 markets worsened in the 12 months ending January 2011.

According to the report, values are down 3.1% from last year, retreating to the same levels from Summer 2003. As a buyer or seller in today's market, though, don't read too much into it. The Case-Shiller Index is far too flawed to be the final word in housing.

The index has 3 main flaws, in fact.

The first flaw is the Case-Shiller Index's lack of breadth. The report is positioned as a national index, but its data is sourced from just 20 cities nationwide.

Putting that number in perspective: the Case-Shiller Index tracks home values from fewer than 1% of the 3,100 U.S. municipalities -- yet still calls the report a "U.S. Average".

A second flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is how it measures home price changes, specifically. Because the index only considers "repeat sales" of the same home in its calculations, and only tracks single-family, detached property, it doesn't capture the "full" U.S. market. Condominiums, multi-family homes, and new construction are ignored in the Case-Shiller Index algorithm. 

In some regions, homes of these excluded types represent a large percentage of the market.

And, lastly, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed because of the amount of time required to release it.

Today, it's almost April and we're talking about closed home resales from January which is really comprised of homes that went under contract in October -- close to 6 months ago. Sales prices from 6 months ago is of little value to today's Cary home buyer, of course.

The Case-Shiller Index can be a helpful tool for economists and policy-makers trying to make sense of the broader housing market, but it tends to fail for individuals like you and me. When you want accurate, real-time housing figures for your local market, talk to your real estate professional instead.