16 of 20 Case-Shiller Cities Show Improvement In May

Standard & Poors released its May 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The index measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.

May's Case-Shiller Index showed a 1 percent increase from April 2011. Home values rose in 16 of the Case-Shiller Index's 20 tracked markets. Only Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa fell. Phoenix was flat.

Don't look too far into the findings, though. Like the FHFA's Home Price Index, the Case-Shiller Index is rife with flaws.

The first flaw of the Case-Shiller Index is its limited geography. Despite being positioned as a national housing index, Case-Schiller Index is sourced from just 20 cities nationwide. There are more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide.

The Case Shiller Index's second flaw is that it ignores all home types excepts for single-family, detached homes in its findings. Condominiums, multi-family homes, and new construction are not included in the Case-Shiller Index.

In some markets, these excluded home types outnumber the included ones.

Furthermore, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed in that it takes 60 days to release.

The Case-Schiller Index reports on a housing market from 2 months ago -- hardly helpful for today's buyers and sellers in Cary , trying to make sense of today's real estate market data. 

When you want real-time housing market data, therefore, for Inside Wade or anywhere else, look past the Case-Shiller Index and talk to a real estate professional instead. It's where you'll get your best, most relevant information.

Home Prices Rise For The 2nd Straight Month

A strong spring season helped home values recover, says the government.

According to the Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index, home prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent from April to May.

It's the HPI's second straight increase, and puts the monthly index at its highest point since January 2011.

As a home seller in Cary , you may appreciate news such as "rising home prices", but it's important to remember that the Home Price Index has a several built-in flaws -- the biggest of which its age.

Today, the calendar nearly reads August, yet, we're still discussing May's housing data. A 2-month delay does little to help buyers and sellers wanting to know the "right now" of housing.

Unfortunately, the Home Price Index data is even more aged than that.

Because the FHFA's Home Price Index measures home prices as recorded at closing, the actual sales prices included in the index are from real estate contracts written 30-60 days prior.

In other words, when we look at the Home Price Index report for May, what we're really seeing is a snapshot of the housing market as it existed in March. March's housing market has little to do with the forces driving home prices today.

Today's real estate market is driven by today's economics.

The Home Price Index is a useful gauge for economists and law-makers; it shows long-term national trends in the housing market which can be used to allocate resources to a project, or to form new policy. For home buyers across the state of Georgia , though, it's less helpful.

For today's real estate buyers and sellers, there's no substitute for real-time data. For that, talk to a real estate professional.

Home Values Climb 0.8 Percent In April

Maybe homes in Raleigh are holding value better than we thought.

Between March and April of this year, home values rose 0.8 percent nationally, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index. It's the index's first month-to-month improvement since May of last year.

Values are down 19 percent since peaking 4 years ago.

Private-sector data affirms the government's report. 

Tuesday, the S&P's Case-Shiller Index also showed home values higher by 0.8 percent in April, on a monthly basis. Led by Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, 13 of the Case-Shiller's 20 tracked markets showed improvement in April. 

In March, just 2 markets did.

As a home seller in or near Twelve Oaks , it's nice to see reports of rising home prices after multiple months of "bad news". However, the data may not be as rosy as it appears to be. National real estate surveys including the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index are flawed for everyday buyers and sellers.

The biggest flaw is "age". Both the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index report on a near 2-month delay.

This week, the calendar turns to July. Yet, we're still discussing housing news from April. The housing market of 60 days ago was very different from the housing market of today. Mortgage rates are different, market drivers are different, and the pool of buyers is likely different, too.

We can't discuss today's housing market with "April" in mind. The data is irrelevant.

Another flaw is that both reports are national in scope. Real estate, by contrast, is local.

When we cite the Home Price Index or the Case-Shiller Index, for example, and say "home values rose 0.8% in April", we're just giving a national average. On the local level, some markets rose by more, some rose by less, and others actually fell.

People buy homes on a specific block of a specific street in a specific neighborhood. Data for homes like that can't be captured in a national survey.

The group that gets the most value from the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller is Wall Street and policy-makers. The indices do a fair job of reporting how housing behaves as a whole, but for individuals concerned with buying and selling homes, the best place to find real-time, accurate data is from a real estate professional.

Foreclosures And Short Sales Distorting "Home Price Trackers"

In an echo of February's Case-Shiller Index report, the government's own home price-tracker -- the Home Price Index -- showed home values slipping between January and February 2011.

The Federal Home Finance Agency data had home values down 1.6 percent nationwide in February, on average, marking the fourth straight month in which prices fell. 

Furthermore, all 9 regions posted losses from the month prior:

• Mountain Region : -3.7% from January
• East South Central : -0.6% from January
• South Atlantic : -0.9% from January
• New England : -2.0% from January

Before you draw conclusions, however, note that the data at which we're looking has several major flaws to it.

First, it's old. We're now in the first week of May and the FHFA's most recent release only covers through February, a time period ending roughly 60 days ago. That's a long delay and today's purchase market in Raleigh looks much different from the one of February. 

Just ask a real estate agent and they'll tell you -- purchase activity is rising.

Second, the FHFA Home Price Index reports on home value changes between consecutive Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac-securitized transactions only. This might be creating an overweight of "distressed properties" in the index which, in turn, drags down valuations.

Distressed homes account for 40% of all home resales and typically sell at 20 percent discounts.

And, lastly, although the Home Price Index is a national report, real estate as a market is decidedly not national. To the contrary, it's extremely local. As an individual, you don't buy, sell or own homes in all 50 states. You buy them in a specific state, and a specific neighborhood ; in places like Scotts Mill. 

The national data is useless to you in that respect.

We can't discount the Home Price Index data entirely, but should remember that it paints a clearer picture of where housing has been versus where housing is going. As a home buyer or homeowner, it's the future of home values that matters more.